Time Of goals

Published on 28 January, 2009 | Leave a comment from N Todorov

Time of Goals 1st and 2nd HalfHave you ever wander when do the teams scores most of the goals ? Is it in the first half or in the second one, when exactly in the first half ? Is it in the first 15 minutes or it is at the end of the half ? Or in which league they score more goals? I asked myself and I found the answer. Actually the inspiration for this article came from another one from sportni.bg and I will allow myself to use it a little bit here. For answering that question over 11 000 games were inspected in the last 8 seasons in 5 European Leagues (Barclay`s, Serie A, Liga BBVA,Bundesliga and Ligue 1).

If you are interested only in the conclusion see the end of the article. I will start analyzing the leagues one by one and in the end I will summarize the statistic.

Barclay`s Premier League:

Barclay`s Premier League
Time of the goals in Barclay`s Premier League (number of goals)
Minute 08-09 07-08 06-07 05-06 04-05 03-04 02-03 01-02 Average
0-15 65 134 118 125 117 140 124 135 119.75
16-30 81 134 137 134 139 154 128 144 131.38
31-45 74 146 168 182 170 166 183 172 157.63
46-60 75 172 135 136 169 170 160 161 147.25
61-75 83 152 177 165 179 148 151 163 152.25
76-90 136 265 200 205 199 234 250 224 214.13
Average 85.67 167.17 155.83 157.83 162.17 168.67 166.00 166.50
Total 514 1003 935 947 973 1012 996 999
Minute of the goals in Barclay`s Premier League (Percentages)
Minute 08-09 07-08 06-07 05-06 04-05 03-04 02-03 01-02 Average
0-15 12.65% 13.36% 12.62% 13.20% 12% 13.82% 12.45% 13.51% 12.95%
16-30 15.76% 13.36% 14.65% 14.15% 14.26% 15.20% 12.85% 14.41% 14.33%
31-45 14.40% 14.56% 17.97% 19.22% 17.44% 16.39% 18.37% 17.22% 16.95%
46-60 14.59% 17.15% 14.44% 14.36% 17.33% 16.78% 16.06% 16.12% 15.85%
61-75 16.15% 15.15% 18.93% 17.42% 18.36% 14.61% 15.16% 16.32% 16.51%
76-90 26.46% 26.42% 21.39% 21.65% 20.41% 23.10% 25.10% 22.42% 23.37%

Time of Goals Premiership Graphic

Graphic 1 – Time of goals in Barclay`s Premier League

From the second table (in percentages) you can see that most of the goals are scored in the second half between 76-90 minute, as the percentages are around 20.41 (season 2005-2006) – 26.46 (season 2008-2009) . Even more clear you can see from the next table:

Spain Liga BBVA:

Spain Liga BBVA
Minute of the goals in Spain Liga BBVA (number of Goals)
Minute 08-09 07-08 06-07 05-06 04-05 03-04 02-03 01-02 Average
0-15 62 141 108 109 120 143 141 128 119.00
16-30 84 157 124 162 142 130 138 135 134.00
31-45 83 165 145 158 187 180 166 154 154.75
46-60 82 160 182 153 186 167 178 158 158.25
61-75 68 169 161 155 151 175 154 182 151.88
76-90 115 235 225 202 198 221 236 195 203.38
Average 82.33 171.17 157.50 156.50 164.00 169.33 168.83 158.67
Total 494 1027 945 939 984 1016 1013 952
Minute of the goals in Spain Liga BBVA (Percentages)
Minute 08-09 07-08 06-07 05-06 04-05 03-04 02-03 01-02 Average
0-15 12.55% 13.73% 11.43% 11.61% 12.20% 14.06% 13.92% 13.45% 12.87%
16-30 17% 15.29% 13.12% 17.25% 14.43% 12.78% 13.62% 14.18% 14.71%
31-45 16.80% 16.07% 15.34% 16.83% 19% 17.70% 16.39% 16.18% 16.79%
46-60 16.60% 15.58% 19.26% 16.29% 18.90% 16.42% 17.57% 16.60% 17.15%
61-75 13.77% 16.46% 17.04% 16.51% 15.35% 17.21% 15.20% 19.12% 16.33%
76-90 23.28% 22.88% 23.81% 21.51% 20.12% 21.73% 23.30% 20.48% 22.14%

From the table we can see that most of the goals in Spain Liga BBVA are scored between 76-90 minute, as the main difference to Barclay`s is that here we have a lot more goals scored between 46-60 minute. The next graphic shows the results in percentages:

Time of Goals BBVA Graphic

Graphic 2 – Time of goals in Spain liga BBVA

Germany Bundesliga

Germany Bundesliga
Minutes of the goals in the Bundesliga (number of goals)
Minute 08-09 07-08 06-07 05-06 04-05 03-04 02-03 01-02 Average
0-15 62 101 111 121 104 124 122 112 107.13
16-30 73 124 137 110 154 140 124 116 122.25
31-45 66 141 126 136 134 151 128 142 128.00
46-60 70 160 145 151 162 153 129 159 141.13
61-75 90 157 143 149 148 161 129 161 142.25
76-90 101 179 174 196 192 180 189 203 176.75
Average 77.00 143.67 139.33 143.83 149.00 151.50 136.83 148.83
Total 462 862 836 863 894 909 821 893
Minutes of the goals in the Bundesliga (percentages)
Minute 08-09 07-08 06-07 05-06 04-05 03-04 02-03 01-02 Average
0-15 13.42% 11.72% 13.28% 14.02% 11.63% 13.61% 14.86% 12.54% 13.14%
16-30 16% 14.39% 16.39% 12.75% 17.23% 15.37% 15.10% 12.99% 15.00%
31-45 14.29% 16.36% 15.07% 15.76% 15% 16.58% 15.59% 15.90% 15.57%
46-60 15.15% 18.56% 17.34% 17.50% 18.12% 16.79% 15.71% 17.81% 17.12%
61-75 19.48% 18.21% 17.11% 17.27% 16.55% 17.67% 15.71% 18.03% 17.50%
76-90 21.86% 20.77% 20.81% 22.71% 21.48% 19.76% 23.02% 22.73% 21.64%

As you can see the most goals are at the end of the second half as the difference to the Barclay`s is 1 – 1,5 percentages.

Time of Goals in Bundesliga Graphic

Graphic 3 – Time of goals in Germany Bundesliga

France Ligue 1

France Ligue 1
Minutes of the goals in France Ligue 1 (number of Goals)
Minute 08-09 07-08 06-07 05-06 04-05 03-04 02-03 01-02 Average
0-15 62 107 105 111 105 119 92 72 96.63
16-30 62 106 121 127 116 148 120 116 114.50
31-45 78 168 139 132 155 165 150 107 136.75
46-60 70 152 135 141 132 137 126 112 125.63
61-75 72 139 157 127 133 150 152 133 132.88
76-90 95 194 199 169 187 163 191 164 170.25
Average 73.17 144.33 142.67 134.50 138.00 147.00 138.50 117.33
Total 439 866 856 807 828 882 831 704
Minutes of goals in France Ligue 1 (in percentages)
Minute 08-09 07-08 06-07 05-06 04-05 03-04 02-03 01-02 Average
0-15 14.12% 12.36% 12.27% 13.74% 12.68% 13.49% 11.07% 10.23% 12.50%
16-30 14% 12.24% 14.14% 15.72% 14.01% 16.78% 14.44% 16.48% 14.74%
31-45 17.77% 19.40% 16.24% 16.34% 19% 18.71% 18.05% 15.20% 17.55%
46-60 15.95% 17.55% 15.77% 17.45% 15.94% 15.53% 15.16% 15.91% 16.16%
61-75 16.40% 16.05% 18.34% 15.72% 16.06% 17.01% 18.29% 18.89% 17.10%
76-90 21.64% 22.40% 23.25% 20.92% 22.58% 18.48% 22.98% 23.30% 21.94%

The conclusion here: there are seasons like 2003-2004 where the time of goals isn`t in the end of game, but still most of the goals in other seasons are scored between 76-90 minute. Graphic 4:

Time of Goals Ligue1 Graphic

Graphic 4 – Time of goals in France Ligue 1

Italy Serie A

Italy Serie A
Minutes of goals in Serie A (number of goals)
Minute 08-09 07-08 06-07 05-06 04-05 03-04 02-03 01-02 Average
0-15 46 114 111 139 126 93 109 112 106.25
16-30 53 142 150 155 120 115 102 118 119.38
31-45 61 166 160 172 169 146 120 129 140.38
46-60 83 164 162 162 179 140 124 124 142.25
61-75 83 154 183 148 166 137 137 139 143.38
76-90 93 236 208 217 203 184 191 183 189.38
Средно 69.83 162.67 162.33 165.50 160.50 135.83 130.50 134.17
Общо 419 976 974 993 963 815 783 805
Minute of goals in Serie A (in percentages)
Minute 08-09 07-08 06-07 05-06 04-05 03-04 02-03 01-02 Average
0-15 10.98% 11.68% 11.40% 14.00% 13.03% 11.41% 13.87% 13.91% 12.54%
16-30 13% 14.55% 15.40% 15.61% 12.41% 14.11% 12.98% 14.66% 14.05%
31-45 14.56% 17.01% 16.43% 17.32% 17% 17.91% 15.27% 16.02% 16.50%
46-60 19.81% 16.80% 16.63% 16.31% 18.51% 17.18% 15.78% 15.40% 17.05%
61-75 19.81% 15.78% 18.79% 14.90% 17.17% 16.81% 17.43% 17.27% 17.25%
76-90 22.20% 24.18% 21.36% 21.85% 20.99% 22.58% 24.30% 22.73% 22.52%

This seems to be the league where the results seem to be most stable. The least goals are scored in the first 15 minutes and the most goals are scored in the last 15 minutes. The interesting thing here is the the difference in percentages between the first and the second half (of course more goals are scored in the second one) is the most significant compared to the other leagues.

Time of Goals SerieA Graphic

Graphic 5 – Time of goals in Italy Serie A

The next table summarizes the data in order to show in which halves are scored more goals:

Goals in the 1th and 2nd half
League: Premier League Serie A Liga BBVA Bundesliga Ligue 1
1th half: 44.23% 43.08% 44.37% 43.71% 44.79%
2nd half: 55.74% 56.82% 55.62% 56.27% 55.20%

No comment is needed here. You can see the data even better from the next table:

Time of Goals 1st 2nd Half Overall

Graphic 6 – Time of goals – Firsh half – Second half

The Conclusion

From this generalized data I can make the following and main conclusion – in all of the observed leagues, most of the goals are scored in the second half as the concentration is in the last 15 minutes and the least goals are scored in the first 15 minutes of the game. The biggest benefit we can make here by this analysis is to know that there is bigger probability to win if we bet in the second half when we are live betting on “time of the next goal“, “over/under“, “first goal before/after 28th/29th minute” and all kind of bets related to scoring goals in live betting.

Here are some classified data to show in which league most goals are scored (these are average values from season 2001-2002 to season 2007-2008):

  1. Spain Liga BBVA – 982
  2. Barclay`s Premier League – 981
  3. Serie A – 901
  4. Bundesliga – 868
  5. France Ligue 1 – 825

Here is the extract from the article that was mentioned in the beginning:

1.If the team plays good, no changes should be made

After a thorough studying of over 1000 games I went to the conclusion that this is one of the biggest delusions nowadays. No matter if a team that has won its previous game, makes a rotation or not, the statistic is all the same – the team wins in the next game in 37% of the cases.

2.Playing style with one touch leads to success.

When the team plays with one touch of the ball that may lead to unprovoked mistakes. The probability for a successful attack with short passes is 82%, while a more continuous passing the ball lead to 92% chance for a finishing strike.

3. Goal in an unsuitable moment.

A friend of mine – professor in London, examined 350 games in Premier League in which the half time result was 1 – 0 and proved that there is no connection between the moment of the goal and the final winner of the game.

4. Nowadays the players run less.

Absolute illusion! If in the past a player ran more than 3 km, he would had a drink at the coach`s expense. Nowadays the players usually run around 10-11 km.

5. Attack on the wings.

Observing more than 10 000 attacks I found out that the theory for successful playing style using attacks on the wings is not true. It turned out the chance for a successful attack through the middle is the same as a successful attack on the wings (1.5%).

6. The best shot are the long shots.

The theory that players should shot from far distance is not scientifically proved. From the analysis of 30 000 shots from different distance I concluded that the every 7th shot from the penalty box is a goal. For comparison – every 37th shot from out of the penalty box is a goal and for distances more than 22 meters – every 56th shot.

7. The player, that won the penalty, should not take the shot.

After the analysis of 2000 penalty kicks we learned that no matter if the player that has been fouled or someone else, will take the shot, the chances are the same – about 75%.

8. Changing the coach.

From 455 replaces of the coach in the period 1981 – 2005 it comes out that the new coaches are managing to rise the team in the table in 60% of the cases.

9. No sex before the game.

This of course is not true. 70% of the players who made sex before the game were better on the field compared to the cases when they were quietly sleeping the previous night.

Source – Sportni.bg

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