Preventive bet

Published on 29 January, 2009 | Leave a comment from N Todorov

Preventiva bet

Does it happen sometimes to wait only for one game from an accumulator or a multi-bet to get a big and nice winning? Yes, it happens to all of us. And I know how unpleasant is when that game screws everything up. The difference is that some of us use a preventive bet in such cases. To make things more clear I will show you an example here:

Let`s imagine that you got the following bet:

Aston Villa – Reading –> Home Win at 1.61 (FT 3:1), played on Saturday
Manchester United – Newcastle –> Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 (FT 6:0), played on Saturday
West Ham – Fulham –>Home Win at 1.72 (FT 2:1), played on Saturday
Bolton – Blackburn –> 2.40 | 3.25 | 3.00 –> Home Win, played at Sunday (still not played)

So till Sunday the accumulator is going really good as we got 3 games finished good for us. But still there is one game to run (Bolton – Blackburn). And this game can screw everything up taking away a nice profit.

So let`s make some calculations. The total odd from the multi-bet is 11.63. Let`s imagine we have staked 100 units. That means eventually our return will be 1163 units. The idea here is to cover all the exits from the last game so still we make nice profit no matter what happens! This means to make a calculated bet on x2 on the last game. The stake you need to bet here is calculated like this:

The eventual return/the odd of the exit

This makes:
For Draw – 1163/3.25 = 357.87
For Away Win – 1163/387.67

So our total stake will be: the initial 100 units + 357.87 units for the draw + 387.67 units for the away win. Or 845.54 total units. This means no matter what happens with the 4th game you will win 1163 units or you profit will be 317.47 units.

The condition in order to make this kind of bets is:

1/odd 1 + 1/odd 2 + … + 1/odd n < 1

In our case is:

1/11.63 + 1/ 3.25 + 1 / 3.00 = 0.72701016

So we cover the condition here and the profit is:

( 1 – 0.72701016 ) * 100 = 27.3 %

Let`s check if this is true:

( 317.47 / 1163 ) * 100 = 27.3 %

Of course like everything in betting – it`s up to you! You are the one that presses the button, so you have to decide whether to make this kind of bets and make sure profit or to risk in order to make some more profit. Anyway you should be aware of this method and try to use it – you will see that`s sometimes really works nice for you and you will sleep better. And every time you make such things don`t forget to calculate 2 things – how important is the stake and the profit for you and what are chances of every single exit!

Here you can download a table that calculates the preventive bet for you – download table for calculating the preventive bet.

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